A mathematical model for a distributed attack on targeted resources in a computer network

• A mathematical model for targeted attacks has been developed.
• An epidemic framework with two populations is used.
• Epidemic threshold obtained and its peculiarity shown.
• Conditions for stability of equilibrium points obtained.
• Analysis of success and failure scenarios done.

A mathematical model has been developed to analyze the spread of a distributed attack on critical targeted resources in a network. The model provides an epidemic framework with two sub-frameworks to consider the difference between the overall behavior of the attacking hosts and the targeted resources. The analysis focuses on obtaining threshold conditions that determine the success or failure of such attacks. Considering the criticality of the systems involved and the strength of the defence mechanism involved, a measure has been suggested that highlights the level of success that has been achieved by the attacker. To understand the overall dynamics of the system in the long run, its equilibrium points have been obtained and their stability has been analyzed, and conditions for their stability have been outlined.