کد مقاله | کد نشریه | سال انتشار | مقاله انگلیسی | نسخه تمام متن |
---|---|---|---|---|
759700 | 896488 | 2008 | 11 صفحه PDF | دانلود رایگان |
![عکس صفحه اول مقاله: Forecasting of foreign exchange rates of Taiwan’s major trading partners by novel nonlinear Grey Bernoulli model NGBM(1, 1) Forecasting of foreign exchange rates of Taiwan’s major trading partners by novel nonlinear Grey Bernoulli model NGBM(1, 1)](/preview/png/759700.png)
The traditional Grey Model is easy to understand and simple to calculate, with satisfactory accuracy, but it is also lack of flexibility to adjust the model to acquire higher forecasting precision. This research studies feasibility and effectiveness of a novel Grey model together with the concept of the Bernoulli differential equation in ordinary differential equation. In this research, the author names this newly proposed model as Nonlinear Grey Bernoulli Model (NGBM). The NGBM is nonlinear differential equation with power index n. By controlling n, the curvature of the solution curve could be adjusted to fit the result of one time accumulated generating operation (1-AGO) of raw data. One extreme case from Grey system textbook is studied by NGBM, and two published articles are chosen for practical tests of NGBM. The results prove the novel NGBM is feasible and efficient. Finally, NGBM is used to forecast 2005 foreign exchange rates of twelve Taiwan major trading partners, including Taiwan.
Journal: Communications in Nonlinear Science and Numerical Simulation - Volume 13, Issue 6, August 2008, Pages 1194–1204