Combined deterministic and stochastic approaches for modelling the evolution of food products along the cold chain. Part II: A case study

The aim of the Part II is to apply the methodology combining deterministic and stochastic approaches to describe the evolution of food products along the cold chain. The proposed methodology, presented in Part I, takes into account different sources of variability (logistics, thermal conditions, consumer behaviour…) and uses deterministic models for equipment and product evolution. First, the data structure of a case study involving the three final links of the cold chain (display cabinet, shopping basket and domestic refrigerator) is presented. Then, the simulation results are analysed in order to highlight the potentialities of the modelling approach. These results are compared with survey data to validate the model. This part also underlines the sources of variability which exert the greatest influence on the microbial load development: the residence time of the product inside the refrigerator and the thermostat setting of the refrigerator.

► The application of a methodology to predict food products evolution is presented.
► This methodology combines deterministic and stochastic approaches.
► Three cold chain links (display cabinet, basket, and refrigerator) are studied.
► A good agreement is obtained between numerical and survey data.