Technical assessment, economic viability and investment risk analysis of solar heating/cooling systems in residential buildings in Morocco

This paper focuses on the potential of a solar installation combining air-conditioning, heating and Domestic Hot Water (DHW) production processes intended for mass use in building sector in Morocco. The objective is to measure the relevance of the investment in such systems through a technico-economic assessment and a risk analysis based on classic economic choice criteria. Then, a sensitivity study was conducted to analyze the impact of the major characteristics of a solar plant project (amount of investment, operation cost, solar sunshine, etc.) on the decision-making in various environments to conclude the technical feasibility and economic viability of these systems under Moroccan conditions. Parametric studies including the solar collectors' technology and field area in addition to the storage tank volume were carried out to design the solar plant and to ensure its optimization in dynamic mode operation. The major finding of this work is that incrementing the collector's field area to 30 m2 optimizes the thermal efficiency of the solar plant, and the electric booster consumption is reduced. Furthermore, it would be advantageous to use a number of collectors of 14 (a total surface of 22 m2 to satisfy) the cooling, heating and hot water needs over the year since the overall system solar fraction remain above 55% when the optimum parameters are considered. The results indicated also that solar cooling systems in hot climates are an attractive option to increase energy savings and to mitigate CO2 emissions. In addition, the solar contribution has increased from 605 kW h to 705 kW h in winter and summer periods, respectively, while the auxiliary consumption has achieved 1450 kW h, 1875 kW h and 2300 kW h for Agadir, Tangier and Ben Guerir, respectively. However, according to the economic assessment, the high solar plant cost is a main barrier facing their implementation in Morocco. Several recommendations were drawn from the profitability study to identify the sensitive points and to consider avenues for improvement with a view to future industrialization of the combined solar thermal installation in Morocco.