Coupled probabilistic and point kinetics modelling of fast pulses in nuclear systems

This paper describes a probabilistic method of modelling point nuclear systems with low numbers of neutrons including the effects of delayed neutron precursors and its coupling with standard point kinetics equations. This coupling allows the simulation of the non-deterministic progression of a system transitioning from subcritical to supercritical and the resulting power peak. Through analysis of large numbers of realisations various statistical parameters of such transients can be obtained. The method of simulation presented here successfully replicates the survival and extinction probabilities predicted by the Backwards Master Equation and experimental and analytic results from the literature regarding the Godiva reactor and extends the examination of that reactor. In particular the effect of delayed neutrons on the simulated response of Godiva is highlighted. With its implementation in a parallel computer code, the model is able to simulate at a reasonable speed a range of systems where low neutron populations are important.