کد مقاله | کد نشریه | سال انتشار | مقاله انگلیسی | نسخه تمام متن |
---|---|---|---|---|
8070915 | 1521389 | 2018 | 34 صفحه PDF | دانلود رایگان |
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
Green investment under policy uncertainty and Bayesian learning
ترجمه فارسی عنوان
سرمایه گذاری سبز تحت عدم اطمینان سیاست و یادگیری بیزی
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موضوعات مرتبط
مهندسی و علوم پایه
مهندسی انرژی
انرژی (عمومی)
چکیده انگلیسی
Many countries have introduced support schemes to accelerate investments in renewable energy (RE). Experience shows that, over time, retraction or revision of support schemes become more likely. Investors in RE are greatly affected by the risk of such subsidy changes. This paper examines how investment behavior is affected by updating a subjective belief on the timing of a subsidy revision, incorporating Bayesian learning into a real options modeling approach. We analyze a scenario where a retroactive downward adjustment of fixed feed-in tariffs (FIT) is expected through a regime switching model. We find that investors are less likely to invest when the arrival rate of a policy change increases. Further, investors prefer a lower FIT with a long expected lifespan. We also consider an extension where, after retraction, electricity is sold in a free market. We find that if policy uncertainty is high, an increase in the FIT will be less effective at accelerating investment. However, if policy risk is low, FIT schemes can significantly accelerate investment, even in highly volatile markets.
ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: Energy - Volume 161, 15 October 2018, Pages 1262-1281
Journal: Energy - Volume 161, 15 October 2018, Pages 1262-1281
نویسندگان
Peder A.O. Dalby, Gisle R. Gillerhaugen, Verena Hagspiel, Tord Leth-Olsen, Jacco J.J. Thijssen,