کد مقاله | کد نشریه | سال انتشار | مقاله انگلیسی | نسخه تمام متن |
---|---|---|---|---|
8071522 | 1521395 | 2018 | 44 صفحه PDF | دانلود رایگان |
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
Effective sparse adaboost method with ESN and FOA for industrial electricity consumption forecasting in China
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کلمات کلیدی
موضوعات مرتبط
مهندسی و علوم پایه
مهندسی انرژی
انرژی (عمومی)
پیش نمایش صفحه اول مقاله
![عکس صفحه اول مقاله: Effective sparse adaboost method with ESN and FOA for industrial electricity consumption forecasting in China Effective sparse adaboost method with ESN and FOA for industrial electricity consumption forecasting in China](/preview/png/8071522.png)
چکیده انگلیسی
Accurate electricity consumption forecasting is a challenging task for its unstable behavior and influence mechanism based on multiple factors. In this study, a neural network ensemble approach is designed to solve this problem. In the proposed method, a novel sparse adaboost (adaboostsp) is designed as the ensemble framework to enhance the generalization ability and reduce ensemble cost, and echo state network (ESN) is adopted to build the nonlinear relationships between electricity demand and multiple factors. An improved fruit fly optimization algorithm (FOA) helps selecting input variables considering their time lag effects. Two industrial electricity consumption (IEC) forecasting applications in China are investigated to verify the effectiveness of proposed ensemble forecasting approach. Numerical results indicate that adaboostsp-ESN with FOA can better predict the future IEC than various benchmark methods. Compared with existing boosting ensemble approaches, the proposed adaboostsp is more efficient and can save considerable computation cost. Impacts of selected variables are further examined and results show many industrial indexes have significant time lag effects on IEC. Based on the proposed techniques, future IEC demand in Hubei Province is estimated and analyzed. Application studies demonstrate the proposed hybrid ensemble approach is a practical choice for mid-term IEC adjustment and projection.
ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: Energy - Volume 155, 15 July 2018, Pages 1013-1031
Journal: Energy - Volume 155, 15 July 2018, Pages 1013-1031
نویسندگان
Lin Wang, Sheng-Xiang Lv, Yu-Rong Zeng,