Assessment of long-term energy efficiency improvement and greenhouse gas emissions mitigation potentials in the chemical sector

The industrial sector accounts for more than one-third of global energy consumption and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. In the sector, the chemical industry makes up nearly 30% of global industrial energy consumption. In this study, a framework is developed to apply bottom-up energy modelling for analyzing energy efficiency improvement and GHG mitigation potential in the chemical sector. Also, techno-economic and policy analyses are used to analyze the applicability and economic performance of different mid- to long-term energy efficiency measures. The comprehensive, data-intensive, and technology-rich model is flexible and can be used to study the GHG mitigation potential in different regions. A case study was conducted for Alberta, one of the biggest industrial hubs in Canada, using the Long-range Energy Alternative Planning model. Twenty-eight GHG mitigation scenarios in the petrochemical and fertilizer industries (the two major chemical industry sub-sectors) were developed. The costs of implementing each mitigation measure were calculated and used to develop cost curves. The results suggest that cumulative mitigation potential from the chemical industry would be 7.1 and 29.7 megatonnes CO2 equivalent in the periods ending 2030 and 2050, respectively. We also found that more than 75% of the emissions reductions are achievable with negative cost.