The long-term scenario and greenhouse gas effects cost-benefit analysis of Iran's electricity sector

The electricity sector has a key role in Iran's socio-economic development. Its contribution to carbon dioxide emissions is 30.2%. Therefore, it is the biggest environmental pollution source in Iran. In this study, the current circumstance of electricity supply and demand in Iran is investigated to find the possible trends for future power generation to predict and answer the questions about the amount of future electricity demand. Electricity demand is based on economics and environmental conditions. In this regard, econometrics method is applied to obtain the electricity demand model in three scenarios until 2040. LEAP model would simulate the supply side for the next three decades in business as usual, low-carbon and renewable energy scenarios based on various possible policies. The results show that the share of fossil fuels from total electricity production remains over 90% and the carbon dioxide emission reaches 668.2 million tonnes in the BAU scenario in 2040. If the policies for the development of renewable technologies are adopted, the share of fossil resources, carbon dioxide emissions decrease to 33% and 294.6 million tonnes respectively.