کد مقاله کد نشریه سال انتشار مقاله انگلیسی نسخه تمام متن
8073751 1521444 2016 15 صفحه PDF دانلود رایگان
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
Using the ensemble Kalman filter for electricity load forecasting and analysis
ترجمه فارسی عنوان
استفاده از فیلتر کلمن برای پیش بینی و تجزیه و تحلیل بار الکتریکی
کلمات کلیدی
موضوعات مرتبط
مهندسی و علوم پایه مهندسی انرژی انرژی (عمومی)
چکیده انگلیسی
This paper proposes a novel framework for modeling electricity loads; it can be used for both forecasting and analysis. The framework combines the EnKF (ensemble Kalman filter) technique with shrinkage/multiple regression methods. First, SSMs (state-space models) are used to model the load structure, and then the EnKF is used for the estimation. Next, shrinkage/multiple linear regression methods are used to further enhance accuracy. The EnKF allows for the modeling of nonlinear systems in the SSMs, and this gives it great flexibility and detailed analytical information, such as the temperature response rate. We show that the forecasting accuracy of the proposed models is significantly better than that of the current state-of-the-art models, and this method also provides detailed analytical information.
ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: Energy - Volume 104, 1 June 2016, Pages 184-198
نویسندگان
, , ,