Risk horoscopes: Predicting the number and type of serious occupational accidents in The Netherlands for sectors and jobs

• Dutch occupational accident risk rates and yearly exposures for 60 hazards are given.
• Risks rates are based on the 1% most serious accidents 1998–Feb 2004.
• Risk rates are used to predict serious accident risks in jobs and sectors.
• Predictions (“risk horoscopes”) give a good match with actual accidents.
• Risk horoscopes can help worker groups identify most important accident risks.

The risk of a serious occupational accident per hour exposure was calculated in a project to develop an occupational risk model in the Netherlands (WebORCA). To obtain risk rates, the numbers of victims of serious occupational accidents investigated by the Dutch Labour inspectorate 1998–Feb 2004 were divided by the number of hours exposure for each of 64 different types of hazards, such as contact with moving parts of machines and falls from various types of height. The exposures to the occupational accident hazards were calculated from a survey of a panel of 30,000 from the Dutch working population. Sixty risk rates were then used to predict serious accidents for activity sectors and jobs in the Netherlands where exposures to the hazards for sectors or jobs could be estimated from the survey. Such predictions have been called “horoscopes” because the idea is to provide a quick look-up of predicted accidents for a particular sector or job. Predictions compared favourably with actual data. It is concluded that predictive data can help provide information about accidents in cases where there is a lack of data, such as for smaller sub groups of the working population.