کد مقاله کد نشریه سال انتشار مقاله انگلیسی نسخه تمام متن
8078938 1521483 2013 9 صفحه PDF دانلود رایگان
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
Probabilistic modelling and analysis of stand-alone hybrid power systems
ترجمه فارسی عنوان
مدل سازی احتمالی و تجزیه و تحلیل سیستم های قدرت هیبریدی مستقل
کلمات کلیدی
سیستم های قدرت هیبریدی، شبکه عصبی، شبیه سازی مونت کارلو، مدل سازی احتمالی،
موضوعات مرتبط
مهندسی و علوم پایه مهندسی انرژی انرژی (عمومی)
چکیده انگلیسی
As a part of the Hybrid Intelligent Algorithm, a model based on an ANN (artificial neural network) has been proposed in this paper to represent hybrid system behaviour considering the uncertainty related to wind speed and solar radiation, battery bank lifetime, and fuel prices. The Hybrid Intelligent Algorithm suggests a combination of probabilistic analysis based on a Monte Carlo simulation approach and artificial neural network training embedded in a genetic algorithm optimisation model. The installation of a typical hybrid system was analysed. Probabilistic analysis was used to generate an input-output dataset of 519 samples that was later used to train the ANNs to reduce the computational effort required. The generalisation ability of the ANNs was measured in terms of RMSE (Root Mean Square Error), MBE (Mean Bias Error), MAE (Mean Absolute Error), and R-squared estimators using another data group of 200 samples. The results obtained from the estimation of the expected energy not supplied, the probability of a determined reliability level, and the estimation of expected value of net present cost show that the presented model is able to represent the main characteristics of a typical hybrid power system under uncertain operating conditions.
ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: Energy - Volume 63, 15 December 2013, Pages 19-27
نویسندگان
, , ,