An artificial neural network ensemble model for estimating global solar radiation from Meteosat satellite images

An optimized artificial neural network ensemble model is built to estimate daily global solar radiation over large areas. The model uses clear-sky estimates and satellite images as input variables. Unlike most studies using satellite imagery based on visible channels, our model also exploits all information within infrared channels of the Meteosat 9 satellite. A genetic algorithm is used to optimize selection of model inputs, for which twelve are selected - eleven 3-km Meteosat 9 channels and one clear-sky term. The model is validated in Andalusia (Spain) from January 2008 through December 2008. Measured data from 83 stations across the region are used, 65 for training and 18 independent ones for testing the model. At the latter stations, the ensemble model yields an overall root mean square error of 6.74% and correlation coefficient of 99%; the generated estimates are relatively accurate and errors spatially uniform. The model yields reliable results even on cloudy days, improving on current models based on satellite imagery.