Accident occurrence model for the risk analysis of industrialfacilities

This paper describes an accident occurrence model for the risk analysis of industrial facilities. To better understand the characteristics of industrial accident data, the proposed accident occurrence model is based on a chemical reaction. The model introduces a defensive barrier, which corresponds to the activation energy in a chemical reaction, to prevent an accident. Furthermore, the uncertainty factor in the defensive barrier is mathematically derived as a gamma distribution. The analytical results for the proposed accident occurrence model indicate a Pareto type II distribution, which is the same result found by using a risk curve. Therefore, the analytical model validates the effectiveness of analyzing industrial risk with a riskcurve.

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► An accident occurrence model based on chemical reaction was proposed.
► Uncertainty factor λ of the defensive barrier to prevent accidents was introduced.
► Accident data of the industrial facilities obey the Pareto type II distribution.