Uncertainty in the deployment of Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS): A sensitivity analysis to techno-economic parameter uncertainty

Projections of the deployment of Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) technologies vary considerably. Cumulative emission reductions by CCS until 2100 vary in the majority of projections of the IPCC-TAR scenarios from 220 to 2200 GtCO2. This variation is a result of uncertainty in key determinants of the baselines of different models, such as, technological development (IPCC Special Report on Carbon Dioxide Capture and Storage. Prepared by Working Group III of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York). Technological key parameters of CCS deployment are power plant efficiency and investment cost, capture cost, transport cost and storage capacity. This study provides insights in how uncertain the key parameters are and how this influences CCS deployment projections. For each parameter, ranges are determined on the basis of the existing literature. CCS deployment is systematically assessed for all of these parameter ranges in a global energy system model (TIMER). The results show that investment cost uncertainty causes the largest range in cumulative CO2 captured from global electricity production (13-176 GtCO2 in 2050) in a scenario with a medium fossil fuel price level. The smallest, but still significant range of 65-91 GtCO2 cumulatively captured until 2050, is caused by the uncertainty in the efficiency of the power plant and capture unit.