Modeling of induced seismicity and ground vibrations associated with geologic CO2 storage, and assessing their effects on surface structures and human perception

In this paper, we present model simulations of ground motions caused by CO2-injection-induced fault reactivation and analyze the results in terms of the potential for damage to ground surface structures and nuisance to the local human population. It is an integrated analysis from cause to consequence, including the whole chain of processes starting from earthquake inception in the subsurface, wave propagation toward the ground surface, and assessment of the consequences of ground vibration. For a small magnitude (Mw = 3) event at a hypocenter depth of about 1000 m, we first used the simulated ground-motion wave train in an inverse analysis to estimate source parameters (moment magnitude, rupture dimensions and stress drop), achieving good agreement and thereby verifying the modeling of the chain of processes from earthquake inception to ground vibration. We then analyzed the ground vibration results in terms of peak ground acceleration (PGA), peak ground velocity (PGV) and frequency content, with comparison to U.S. Geological Survey's instrumental intensity scales for earthquakes and the U.S. Bureau of Mines' vibration criteria for cosmetic damage to buildings, as well as human-perception vibration limits. Our results confirm the appropriateness of using PGV (rather than PGA) and frequency for the evaluation of potential ground-vibration effects on structures and humans from shallow injection-induced seismic events. For the considered synthetic Mw = 3 event, our analysis showed that the short duration, high frequency ground motion may not cause any significant damage to surface structures, but would certainly be felt by the local population.