Assessing the policy impacts on non-ferrous metals industry's CO2 reduction: Evidence from China

The nonferrous metals industry (NMI) consumes a great amount of energy, and is a typical high CO2 emission sector. The NMI is one of the eight most concerning industries in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report. In this study, we summarized policies that impact Chinese NMI's development and grouped them into three types: energy structure policies, energy efficiency improving policies and production-scale policies. Based on those quantitative policy goals, a bottom-up model has been developed to study the CO2 emissions of five NMI's major sub-sectors from 2010 to 2030. The results showed that if China's central government could stick to the CO2 reduction policy strength of 13th Five-Year Plan (2016-2020), then the copper, lead and zinc industries can reach their emissions peak before 2030. Furthermore, if the Chinese government restricts the production of primary aluminum of 46.2 million tons in 2025, then the CO2 emissions of China's non-ferrous industry could reach the peak in that year, when the CO2 emissions peak is 297 million tons. Having benefited from the effective CO2 reduction policies of NMI, China may reach its ambitious CO2 peaking goals more easily.