Does industrial green transformation successfully facilitate a decrease in carbon intensity in China? An environmental regulation perspective

Global climate change caused by carbon emissions poses a severe challenge to human economic and social development. The Chinese government has committed to a series of emission reduction initiatives to achieve carbon intensity targets by actively promoting the green transformation of the industrial sector-the main source of energy consumption and environmental pollution. This transformation has been ongoing for more than five years, and the effects, problems and experiences are worth discussing. Therefore, using province-level panel data for China's industry from 2010 to 2015, we systematically analyze the regional structure and developmental trend of industrial green transformation and empirically investigate its dynamic threshold effects on carbon intensity under different degrees of environmental regulation. The results show that China's industry has gradually undergone a green transformation, which has significantly reduced pollution emissions. However, the process has a large developmental scope due to regional heterogeneity and fluctuation characteristics. Interestingly, the impact of the industrial green transformation on carbon intensity is limited by the "critical mass" of environmental regulations. Paradoxically, weak environmental regulation significantly facilitates a decrease in carbon intensity through industrial green transformation. Once environmental regulation surpasses a critical level, the role of this transformation in CO2 reduction is weakened, resulting in a failure to decrease carbon intensity. We provide insights into the driving factors that reduce carbon intensity and improve our understanding of the driving forces, paths and policy designs needed to successfully reach carbon intensity targets.