A dynamic perspective of the geopolitical supply risk of metals

Metals are distributed in the earth's crust in varying amounts and ore concentrations, implying that some countries have more metal resources than others. This inequality in geological resource distribution may lead to potential constraints and bottlenecks of a steady resource supply. In the context of strategic planning and innovation, and in scientific literature, this aspect is often referred to as geopolitical supply risk. In the past few decades, cobalt crisis, the oil embargo, and the more recent Rare Earth Elements (REEs) issue are the best examples regarding the geopolitical supply risk of mineral resources. The aim of this study is to present a historical overview of the development in geopolitical supply risk of 52 metals during the past two decades and to support an assessment of such risk in the future, i.e. 2050. A geographical mapping of metals primary production in 1994 and 2013 is included which shows a shift from developed economies to developing economies over this time period. Our analysis demonstrates that the geopolitical supply risk of metals has been fluctuating during the past two decades due to change in the number and production share of producing countries. During this time period, Chinese share of global metals production has increased from 23% to 44%. China, today, is also the dominant supplier of 34 metals, out of which 23 are considered as critical resources by the European Commission. The future geopolitical supply risk is less dependent on the present production distribution and more dependent on the location of current geological resources and the future discoveries, as well as on the technological development to improve profitability of mining the currently sub-economical resources.