A spatio-temporal decomposition analysis of energy-related CO2 emission growth in China

This paper presented a coupled decomposition analysis of CO2 emissions due to energy consumption in China. The logarithmic mean divisia index (LMDI) approach was adopted to decompose the driving factors of CO2 emissions in eight sub-periods over 1995 to 2011. Decomposition and heterogeneity analyses of CO2 emission over multiple spatial series were also conducted for the 29 provinces in China. Twelve driving factors in view of four categories of effects were decomposed. The results indicated that (a) driving directions of the factors were highly consistent. All the factors exhibited consistently positive and negative effects both spatially and temporally. Among these factors, the average labor productivity (ALP) was the dominant positive driving factor and energy intensity of production sector (EIP) was the dominant negative driving factor, (b) over multiple temporal scales, China experienced the largest energy-related CO2 emission growth in the sub-periods during 2001-2003 and 2003 to 2005. Additionally, the change in the CO2 emissions from 1997 to 1999 was negative, unlike the other 7 sub-periods, and (c) over multiple spatial scales, contribution values of the factors in different provinces varied significantly, where in general the positive driving effects outweighed the negative inhibiting effects. In total, CO2 emissions in eastern provinces increased to the largest degrees, followed by central and western ones. It is suggested that China should coordinate and balance the relationships between economic development and CO2 emission reduction, further decrease energy intensity of many production sectors, gradually adjust the economic and energy structures, and formulate CO2 emission reduction policies to accommodate regional disparities.