Critical analysis of techno-economic estimates for the production cost of lignocellulosic bio-ethanol

In this study, the main key factors determining these deviations are pinpointed. The assumed values in the different studies were critically investigated and more accurate, unambiguous values proposed. By doing this, a current production cost of $651 per m³ ethanol was calculated and a realistic projection towards the near future estimates an MESP of $511. Corn ethanol has already a higher price than the current price of lignocellulosic ethanol due to the high cost of corn. A comparison with gasoline yields a 10% lower price than the future MESP of lignocellulosic ethanol. Due to rising gasoline prices, lignocellulosic ethanol is likely to become in the future not only a more ecological but also a more economical attractive transportation fuel.