Land sensitivity to desertification across Italy: Past, present, and future

This paper illustrates an example of ‘early warning’ assessment of sensitivity to land degradation (LD) over Italy by monitoring changes of its main determinants during a long-term period (1960–2008) and by providing a short-term evaluation for 2015. These objectives were gained (i) by analysing trends of several climate, vegetation, and land use variables, regarded as the main underlying factors to LD, (ii) by calculating the standard Environmental Sensitive Area Index (ESAI) in 1960, 1990, 2000 and 2008, and (iii) by projecting the ESAI changes in the near future. An evident increase in the number and extent of areas sensitive to LD was observed during the last fifty years in southern Italy. Interestingly, the reduction of rainfall amounts, together with increasing population density and agricultural intensification, are leading northern Italy to a high level of sensitivity too. The applicability of the ESA scheme to a permanent monitoring of LD sensitivity in the Mediterranean landscape was discussed for improvements at the regional scale.