Attacks on oil transport pipelines in Nigeria: A quantitative exploration and possible explanation of observed patterns

In countries with insufficient investments in infrastructure and weak environmental governance, oil leakage from pipelines often occurs as a result of poor management and maintenance. Nigeria has its share of such incidents, but also, it suffers a large number of deliberate attacks (‘interdictions’) on oil pipelines. Often these attacks are accompanied by oil theft, carried out by well-equipped professionals and/or at a smaller scale by opportunistic local residents. The causes of these attacks, and the extent of subsequent damage to local communities and the environment, are obscured by a complex web of stakeholders, claims and actions. Any efforts to mitigate the negative impacts of interdiction on the environment and people require a better understanding of its spatiotemporal pattern of occurrence. This article presents a first quantitative and regional exploration of the problem of oil pipeline interdiction in Nigeria. It illustrates geographic patterns through choroplethic and bivariate GIS (Geographical Information Systems) map overlays. We examine interdiction statistics, identify spatiotemporal patterns and discuss correlations with socioeconomic factors. Findings include: (a) strong negative correlation between pipeline interdiction and poverty; and (b) statistically and non-statistically significant mean differences in the pattern of interdiction occurrence amongst the five geographic regions. Finally, we highlight the need for much better data collection and reporting for the mitigation of the negative socio-environmental impacts of interdiction incidences.

► We present first quantitative and regional exploration of oil pipeline interdiction.
► We explore correlation between pipeline interdiction and socioeconomic variables.
► Overall mean difference in the pattern of interdiction is statistically significant.
► As interdiction increases, poverty decreases.
► In more affluent regions, there are more interdictions and vice versa.