کد مقاله کد نشریه سال انتشار مقاله انگلیسی نسخه تمام متن
837914 908351 2011 15 صفحه PDF دانلود رایگان
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
Permanence and extinction of a nonautonomous HIV/AIDS epidemic model with distributed time delay
موضوعات مرتبط
مهندسی و علوم پایه سایر رشته های مهندسی مهندسی (عمومی)
پیش نمایش صفحه اول مقاله
Permanence and extinction of a nonautonomous HIV/AIDS epidemic model with distributed time delay
چکیده انگلیسی

In this paper, we have considered a nonautonomous stage-structured HIV/AIDS epidemic model having two stages of the period of infection according to the developing progress of infection before AIDS defined in, with varying total population size and distributed time delay to become infectious. The infected persons in the different stages have different abilities of transmitting disease. By all kinds of treatment methods, some people with the symptomatic stages can be transformed into asymptomatic stages. Here, we have established some sufficient conditions on the permanence and extinction of the disease by using the inequality analytical technique. We have obtained the explicit formula of the eventual lower bounds of infected persons. We have introduced some new threshold values R0R0 and R∗R∗ and further obtained that the disease will be permanent when R0>1R0>1 and the disease will be going extinct when R∗<1R∗<1. By the Lyapunov functional method, we have also obtained some sufficient conditions for global asymptotic stability of this model. Also, we have observed that the time delay decreases the lower bounds of the infective and full-blown AIDS group. Computer simulations are carried out to explain the analytical findings. The aim of the analysis of this model is to identify the parameters of interest for further study, with a view to informing and assisting policy-makers in targeting prevention and treatment resources for maximum effectiveness.

ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: Nonlinear Analysis: Real World Applications - Volume 12, Issue 2, April 2011, Pages 1163–1177
نویسندگان
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