کد مقاله کد نشریه سال انتشار مقاله انگلیسی نسخه تمام متن
84358 158876 2014 13 صفحه PDF دانلود رایگان
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
Forecasting value of agricultural imports using a novel two-stage hybrid model
ترجمه فارسی عنوان
ارزش پیش بینی واردات کشاورزی با استفاده از یک مدل ترکیبی دو مرحله ای جدید
موضوعات مرتبط
مهندسی و علوم پایه مهندسی کامپیوتر نرم افزارهای علوم کامپیوتر
چکیده انگلیسی


• This study constructs a two-stage model for forecasting the values of agricultural imports.
• The proposed model combines GM(1,1) with GP to enhance the forecasting accuracy.
• The proposed model is helpful for agricultural applications.

Agricultural imports are becoming increasingly important in terms of their impact on economic development. An accurate model must be developed for forecasting the value of agricultural imports since rapid changes in industry and economic policy affect the value of agricultural imports. Conventionally, the ARIMA model has been utilized to forecast the value of agricultural imports, but it generally requires a large sample size and several statistical assumptions. Some studies have applied nonlinear methods such as the GM(1,1) and improved GM(1,1) models, yet neglected the importance of enhancing the accuracy of residual signs and residual series. Therefore, this study develops a novel two-stage forecasting model that combines the GM(1,1) model with genetic programming to accurately forecast the value of agricultural imports. Moreover, accuracy of the proposed model is demonstrated based on two agricultural imports data sets from the Taiwan and USA.

ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: Computers and Electronics in Agriculture - Volume 104, June 2014, Pages 71–83
نویسندگان
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