Global change and agricultural management options for groundwater sustainability

According to the general circulation models (CGMs) for future climate projections, a temperature increase, precipitation decrease, and an increase in the variability of extreme events may be expected in the future, likely reducing available water resources. For the western Mediterranean, future climate change projections indicate that temperature increase may range from 1.5 °C to 3.6 °C, and the precipitation decline will reach between 10% and 20%, which may result in a significant reduction of natural groundwater recharge. With the use of modelling tools, the amount of groundwater recharge under different climate change scenarios and varying agricultural management practices can be predicted, and water budget attributes can be estimated, which may allow for quantifying impacts, and assist in defining adaptation strategies. For the Inca–Sa Pobla basin (Balearic Islands, Spain), under future climate change projections, agricultural management alternatives of crop type distribution and irrigation demands are required for planned adaptation strategies. In the area, where irrigation water for agricultural practices originates from groundwater resources, adaptation measures based on a change from mixed crops to potatoes and a 20% decrease of agricultural land cultivation have proven to be efficient for the hydrologic system and associated wetland sustainability.

► Planned adaptation strategies requires linking agricultural and climate scenarios.
► Groundwater sustainability depends on irrigated land reduction and crop type change.
► Potato crops actual evapotranspiration decreases compared to mixed crops.
► Wetland preservation needs to focus on agricultural adaptive measures.