Sudden Death After Hospitalization for Heart Failure With Reduced Ejection Fraction (from the EVEREST Trial)

Patients with chronic heart failure with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF) benefit from medical and device therapies targeting sudden cardiac death (SCD). Contemporary estimates of SCD risk after hospitalization for heart failure are limited. We describe the incidence, timing, and clinical predictors of SCD after hospitalization for HFrEF (≤40%) in the EVEREST (Efficacy of Vasopressin Antagonism in Heart Failure Outcome Study with Tolvaptan) trial. Multiple logistic regression analyses tested >30 baseline covariates (including treatment randomization, demographics, comorbid conditions, natriuretic peptides, ejection fraction, and medical and device therapies) to identify predictors of 1-year SCD. Of the 4,024 trial patients discharged alive (97%), there were 268 who experienced SCD (7%) and 703 who experienced non-SCD (17%) during median follow-up of 9.9 months. Implantable cardioverter defibrillator use at baseline was 14.5%. Estimates of SCD at 1, 3, 6, and 12 months were 0.8%, 2.3%, 4.1%, and 7.4%, respectively. Most patients were readmitted before SCD (n = 147, 55%). Male gender, black race, diabetes mellitus, and angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitor/angiotensin II receptor blocker use were potential predictors of 1-year SCD after hospitalization for HFrEF (all p <0.10); however, this final model demonstrated poor discrimination (C-statistic 0.57). In conclusion, in the EVEREST trial, patients hospitalized for HFrEF faced risks of 1-year postdischarge SCD of 7%, which accrued gradually over time, and were balanced with high competing risks of nonsudden death (17%). Traditional clinical characteristics fail to adequately predict SCD risk. Further data are needed to identify patients at greatest relative risk for SCD (compared with non-SCD) after hospitalization for HFrEF.