Interpreting temporal fluctuations in resting-state functional connectivity MRI

Application of PR and multivariate ARR to Human Connectome Project data suggests that the stationary, linear, Gaussian null hypothesis cannot be rejected for most participants. However, failure to reject the null hypothesis does not imply that static FC can fully explain dFC. We find that first order AR models explain temporal FC fluctuations significantly better than static FC models. Since first order AR models encode both static FC and one-lag FC, this suggests the presence of dynamical information beyond static FC. Furthermore, even in subjects where the null hypothesis was rejected, AR models explain temporal FC fluctuations significantly better than a popular HMM, suggesting the lack of discrete states (as measured by resting-state fMRI). Overall, our results suggest that AR models are not only useful as a means for generating null data, but may be a powerful tool for exploring the dynamical properties of resting-state fMRI. Finally, we discuss how apparent contradictions in the growing dFC literature might be reconciled.