Hydro- and sediment dynamics in the Gironde estuary (France): Sensitivity to seasonal variations in river inflow and sea level rise

Understanding estuarine hydrodynamics and sediment dynamics is of key importance to provide the foundation for sound management of these coastal systems. Turbidity maxima, which are zones of elevated suspended sediment concentration (SSC), are of particular interest as they control biogeochemical cycling and affect the overall environmental quality of the estuary. These turbidity maxima, however, are complex dynamic features that respond to changes in forcing conditions. In this study we use a 3D numerical model to investigate the response of hydrosedimentary dynamics to variations in river inflow and sea level rise in the Gironde estuary, which is one of the largest estuarine systems in Europe. Yearly simulations and comparisons with satellite data and measurements of salinity and SSC show that the model reproduces variations in salinity intrusion and the migration of the turbidity maximum driven by seasonal fluctuations in river inflow. Numerical experiments indicate that the formation of this dynamic turbidity maximum is mainly driven by tidal asymmetry. Density gradients play a secondary role by maintaining the stability of the suspended sediment mass. The model also simulates the presence of a secondary turbidity maximum which is more stable, consistent with observations. Evaluation of the sediment budget shows that sediment export mainly occurs during spring tides and when river discharge is high. Simulations including sea level rise suggest that salinity levels in the middle estuary will increase and rising water levels cause tidal amplification, strengthening of tidal currents and enhanced SSC levels in the upper estuary. On the other hand, the locations of the salinity front and the turbidity maximum remain relatively stable under rising water levels. Overall, our simulations suggest that decadal changes in river inflow can potentially have a larger effect on turbidity maximum dynamics than sea level rise.