Modeling the impact of climate change on water resources and soil erosion in a tropical catchment in Burkina Faso, West Africa

The impact of climate change on hydrology and soil erosion was assessed by comparing the historical period with the future climate scenarios (2021-2050). Most of the used climate models predict an increase of temperature between 0.9 °C and 2.0 °C. The bias correction did not alter the climate change signal of temperature. Large uncertainties among the RCMs-GCMs exist regarding the climate change signal of future precipitation. Some climate models predict an increased (5.9%-36.5%) others a decreased (6.4%-10.9%) or mixed signal. The applied bias correction did not reverse the climate change signal in most cases but it influenced magnitude and timing of precipitation. The ensemble mean suggests an increased discharge between 19.5% (RCP 8.5) and 36.5% (RCP4.5) and an increased SSY of the same order. In general, the climate change signal and the corresponding discharge and SSY predictions are afflicted with large uncertainties. These uncertainties impede direct conclusions regarding future development of discharge and erosion. As a consequence of the mixed signals, potential increase and decrease of future discharge and soil erosion have to be incorporated in climate change adaption strategies.