On the accuracy of affective forecasting: The moderating role of passion

Research on affective forecasting has demonstrated that people are generally inaccurate in predicting their future emotional states (Wilson & Gilbert, 2003). It is proposed that passion toward an activity would moderate this inaccuracy. According to the Dualistic Model of Passion (Vallerand, 2010), individuals can be passionate in two distinct fashions (harmonious and obsessive). It was hypothesized that harmonious passion would lead individuals’ affective forecasts to be more coherent with their experienced affective reactions. This is so because harmonious passion stems from an integrated self-structure in which the activity takes an important but not overpowering space in identity. Conversely, obsessive passion stems from ego-invested self-structures, in which the activity takes a disproportionate place in one’s identity. Thus, obsessive passion should not be a significant moderator of affective forecasting accuracy. The present study was conducted with a sample of soccer fans (N = 62) who reported their forecasted and experienced affective reactions before and following their favorite team’s games in the 2010 World Cup of soccer. Results revealed that harmonious passion was associated with greater affective forecasting accuracy. Obsessive passion was unrelated to this phenomenon. Results are discussed in light of the affective forecasting and passion literatures.

► This study investigates the moderating role of passion in affective forecasting accuracy.
► Harmonious passion leads to greater affective forecasting accuracy.
► Obsessive passion does not increase the accuracy.
► Perceived activity importance decreases the accuracy.
► The effects of harmonious passion go over and beyond perceived activity importance.