کد مقاله | کد نشریه | سال انتشار | مقاله انگلیسی | نسخه تمام متن |
---|---|---|---|---|
8917394 | 1642762 | 2017 | 27 صفحه PDF | دانلود رایگان |
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
Future extreme climate changes linked to global warming intensity
ترجمه فارسی عنوان
تغییرات اقلیمی شدید در آینده با شدت گرمایش جهانی مرتبط است
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کلمات کلیدی
پروژکتور گرمایش جهانی، شدیدات آب و هوا، پیوند عدم قطعیت،
موضوعات مرتبط
مهندسی و علوم پایه
شیمی
شیمی (عمومی)
چکیده انگلیسی
Based on the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) daily dataset, we investigate changes of the terrestrial extreme climates given that the global mean temperature increases persistently under the Representative Concentration Pathways 8.5 (RCP8.5) scenario. Compared to preindustrial conditions, more statistically significant extreme temperatures, precipitations, and dry spells are expected in the 21st century. Cold extremes decrease and warm extremes increase in a warmer world, and cold extremes tend to be more sensitive to global warming than the warm ones. When the global mean temperature increases, cold nights, cold days, and warm nights all display nonlinear relationships with it, such as the weakening of the link projected after 3â¯Â°C global warming, while the other indices generally exhibit differently, with linear relationships. Additionally, the relative changes in the indices related to extreme precipitation show significantly consistent linear changes with the global warming magnitude. Compared with the precipitation extremes, changes in temperature extremes are more strongly related to the global mean temperature changes. For the projection of the extreme precipitation changes, models show higher uncertainty than that in extreme temperature changes, and the uncertainty for the precipitation extremes becomes more remarkable when the global warming exceeds 5â¯Â°C.
ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: Science Bulletin - Volume 62, Issue 24, 30 December 2017, Pages 1673-1680
Journal: Science Bulletin - Volume 62, Issue 24, 30 December 2017, Pages 1673-1680
نویسندگان
Xiaoxin Wang, Dabang Jiang, Xianmei Lang,