کد مقاله کد نشریه سال انتشار مقاله انگلیسی نسخه تمام متن
896508 1472412 2014 14 صفحه PDF دانلود رایگان
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
Modeling seasonal effects in the Bass Forecasting Diffusion Model
ترجمه فارسی عنوان
مدل سازی اثرات فصلی در مدل پراکندگی پیش بینی باس
کلمات کلیدی
پیش بینی، اثرات فصلی، سری بی معنی مثلثاتی
موضوعات مرتبط
علوم انسانی و اجتماعی مدیریت، کسب و کار و حسابداری کسب و کار و مدیریت بین المللی
چکیده انگلیسی

The Bass Forecasting Diffusion Model is one of the most used models to forecast the sales of a new product. It is based on the idea that the probability of an initial sale is a function of the number of previous buyers. Almost all products exhibit seasonality in their sales patterns and these seasonal effects can be influential in forecasting the weekly/monthly/quarterly sales of a new product, which can also be relevant to making different decisions concerning production and advertising. The objective of this paper is to estimate these seasonal effects using a new family of distributions for circular random variables based on nonnegative trigonometric sums and to use this family of circular distributions to define a seasonal Bass model. Additionally, comparisons in terms of one-step-ahead forecasts between the Bass model and the proposed seasonal Bass model for products such as iPods, DVD players, and Wii Play video game are included.

ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: Technological Forecasting and Social Change - Volume 88, October 2014, Pages 251–264
نویسندگان
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