How competitive forces sustain electric vehicle development

This patent study researches the relation between competitive forces and the continuation of waves of Low Emission Vehicle (LEV) development. The competitive forces included are rivalry, dispersion referring to competition in general, and the presence of new entrants. We identify four waves of LEV development over the period 1990–2010, two of which were broken before becoming a commercial success, one that was continued, and one that is the current wave of Battery Electric Vehicle (BEV) development. Although the presence of new entrants could not be tested for all cases, our findings suggest that the combination of rivalry and dispersion positively relates to continued LEV development. We conclude that continuation of the current wave of BEV development is likely, as it is supported by increases in rivalry, dispersion and the presence of new entrants.

► We provide a new set of competition based indicators for technological forecasting.
► This set includes the presence of new entrants, dispersion and rivalry.
► This set helps understand broken and sustained waves of technological development.
► This set predicts that continuation of current BEV developments is likely.