Comparison of two different statistical models considering individual races or racetracks for evaluation of German trotters

Two different statistical models considering racetrack or individual race as fixed effect were compared, regarding genetic parameters and by using cross validation. Data for variance component estimation consisted of 48,942 performance observations from 4249 trotters. Variance components for the traits square root of rank at finish, racing time per km, and log of earnings per race were estimated by REML using two multiple trait animal models involving different racetracks or individual races. When including each individual race instead of racetracks in the statistical model, heritabilities increased from 0.05 to 0.07, 0.19 to 0.23, and 0.08 to 0.09 for square root of rank at finish, racing time per km, and log of earnings per race, respectively. Genetic and phenotypic correlations among traits increased also after consideration of individual races. Square root of rank at finish, as well as racing time per km and log of earnings per race, was highly genetically correlated with −0.99 and −0.88. The two statistical models were compared on the basis of their predictive ability by using cross validation. Data for these analyses consisted of 706,082 observations from 21,363 trotters. Randomly eliminated performance observations were predicted by cumulation of fixed and random effects obtained from estimation of breeding values for both models. Estimates for racing time showed lower bias and mean square error (MSE) when considering individual races instead of racetracks. Also, the correlation between predicted and true phenotypic value increased from 0.85 to 0.92. Estimates for square root of rank at finish were unbiased, but with a higher MSE when considering individual race effect. A similar high bias and MSE with both models were obtained for log of earnings. In order to avoid bias in estimation of genetic parameters and breeding values for racing time and square root of rank at finish, inclusion of each individual race in the statistical model was recommended.