Evaluation of an antimicrobial resistance monitoring program for campylobacter in poultry by simulation

For a sampling scenario testing 100 flocks, five birds per flock, and one campylobacter colony per sample, the median error of the prevalence estimate was 2.5%, and 95% of the simulations resulted in an error of 7% or less. When the total number of samples was kept constant, maximizing the number of flocks tested, and only testing one bird per flock resulted in the most precise prevalence estimate. Submitting more than one campylobacter colony to resistance testing did not improve the prevalence estimate. Partial budget analysis indicated that the most cost-effective strategy was testing of two birds per flock, and submitting one colony per sample to resistance testing.