Diagnostic criteria in predicting a biliary origin of acute pancreatitis in the era of endoscopic ultrasound: Multicentre prospective evaluation of 213 patients

Background: No study on bioclinical criteria predicting a biliary origin for acute pancreatitis has included endosonography as a reference examination. Re-examination of bioclinical parameters deserves consideration in the era where other causes are known (e.g. hereditary, autoimmune). Aim and Methods: To determine the performance of bioclinical markers in predicting a biliary origin of acute pancreatitis where the diagnosis of biliary lithiasis was established or ruled out using endosonography. Only patients with a first acute episode of pancreatitis were included. Results: 213 patients (male: 55%; median age: 56 years) were prospectively included in 14 centres. Causes of acute pancreatitis were: biliary (62%), alcoholic (25%), other (13%). Delay between symptom-onset and admission was <48 h in 80%. Endosonography was the sole method establishing the diagnosis of biliary pancreatitis in 15% of patients. At univariate analysis, age, female sex, declared alcohol consumption, elevated aspartate and alanine transaminases on admission, gammaglutamyl transferase, alkaline phosphatase, total bilirubin, lipase, mean corpuscular volume were predictive of a biliary origin. Only age (p < 0.0001), sex (p < 0.0008) and alanine transaminase (p < 0.0004) remained significant at multivariate analysis. At age 50, the respective sensitivity and specificity were 73 and 65%. With an elevated alanine transaminase at 2 times the upper limit of normal range, the respective sensitivity and specificity were 74 and 84%. The probability of a biliary origin of acute pancreatitis could be estimated by the following formula: = 1/1 + exp(4.6967 − 0.0656 × age + 1.1208 × sex − 0.6909 × alanine transaminase). Conclusion: When endosonography is performed to confirm or exclude a biliary origin of acute pancreatitis, age, sex and alanine transaminase at admission are the only factors predictive of a biliary cause.