کد مقاله کد نشریه سال انتشار مقاله انگلیسی نسخه تمام متن
927435 921980 2008 20 صفحه PDF دانلود رایگان
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
Children’s understanding of posterior probability
موضوعات مرتبط
علوم زیستی و بیوفناوری علم عصب شناسی علوم اعصاب شناختی
پیش نمایش صفحه اول مقاله
Children’s understanding of posterior probability
چکیده انگلیسی

Do young children have a basic intuition of posterior probability? Do they update their decisions and judgments in the light of new evidence? We hypothesized that they can do so extensionally, by considering and counting the various ways in which an event may or may not occur. The results reported in this paper showed that from the age of five, children’s decisions under uncertainty (Study 1) and judgments about random outcomes (Study 2) are correctly affected by posterior information. From the same age, children correctly revise their decisions in situations in which they face a single, uncertain event, produced by an intentional agent (Study 3). The finding that young children have some understanding of posterior probability supports the theory of naive extensional reasoning, and contravenes some pessimistic views of probabilistic reasoning, in particular the evolutionary claim that the human mind cannot deal with single-case probability.

ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: Cognition - Volume 106, Issue 1, January 2008, Pages 325–344
نویسندگان
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