Effects of CAP policy on farm household behaviour and social sustainability

This paper aims to assess the effects of Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) on farm household behaviour and social sustainability by estimating main labour and employment indicators. The methodology used is scenario analysis based on multicriteria decision making in order to estimate and compare the impacts of different CAP scenarios on social indicators. A Multicriteria Mathematical Programming model was developed at farm household level and five future scenarios were used. The model estimates the farmers’ utility function taking in account various conflicting criteria that can explain the farmers’ behaviour. Then the model is used to simulate the impacts on social sustainability by estimating the social indicators mentioned above. The methodology was implemented to farm households in three case study areas, located in Macedonia Thrace (Greece), Guadalquivir Valley Andalusia (Spain) and Southern Eastern Planning Region (Bulgaria).

► CAP has multiple social impacts and particularly in the farm employment structure.
► Liberalization Scenario (No CAP) has negative consequences for farm employment.
► Enviroment and Subsidiarity Scenarios can mitigate any negative impacts.