Landscape structure and management regime as indicators of calcareous grassland habitat condition and species diversity

This study investigates the importance of spatial landscape characteristics and habitat management on the condition of calcareous grassland in the North Down Natural Area, Kent UK. We used a digitised map of the study area containing shapefiles of all the habitats including 82 patches of calcareous grassland together with management information for each patch and data on the presence and abundance of a range of calcareous grassland indicator plant species. We defined habitat condition by presence of indicator species and used classification trees to generate models with rules for predicting habitat condition from the landscape spatial characteristics and management information. We also applied the same method to investigate the factors affecting presence or diversity of three ecological groups of positive indicator species and dominance of a negative indicator species. All the models except one showed good classification accuracy and high kappa statistic. Favourable habitat condition was predicted by presence of different types of grazing management, presence of woodland around patches of calcareous grassland and shape complexity. These results indicate that calcareous grassland in favourable condition is management-dependent but also located in less intensively managed landscapes. Unfavourable habitat condition was predicted by threat factors such as lack of management and high incidence of arable or improved grassland around patches of calcareous grassland, indicating nutrient enrichment and habitat degradation. Some of these factors also predicted high diversity of the different ecological species groups. The value of this method for predicting habitat condition and species diversity from baseline ecological data for conservation monitoring at the landscape level is emphasised.