Early birds, late risers, and sleeping beauties: Bank credit growth to the private sector in Central and Eastern Europe and in the Balkans

Following a period of privatization and restructuring, commercial banks in Central and Eastern Europe and, more recently, in the Balkans have expanded rapidly their lending to the private sector. This paper studies whether these developments are consistent with a process of convergence and structural financial deepening by estimating an “equilibrium” level of the bank-credit-to-GDP ratio. It concluded that while there is no clear evidence that the recent increases in bank credit ratios is inconsistent with financial deepening, policy-makers will have to evaluate carefully its implications for macroeconomic developments and financial stability.