کد مقاله کد نشریه سال انتشار مقاله انگلیسی نسخه تمام متن
957253 928516 2011 20 صفحه PDF دانلود رایگان
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
Aggregation of multiple prior opinions
موضوعات مرتبط
علوم انسانی و اجتماعی اقتصاد، اقتصادسنجی و امور مالی اقتصاد و اقتصادسنجی
پیش نمایش صفحه اول مقاله
Aggregation of multiple prior opinions
چکیده انگلیسی

Experts are asked to provide their advice in a situation of uncertainty. They adopt the decision makerʼs utility function, but each has a potentially different set of prior probabilities, and so does the decision maker. The decision maker and the experts maximize the minimal expected utility with respect to their sets of priors. We show that a natural Pareto condition is equivalent to the existence of a set Λ of probability vectors over the experts, interpreted as possible allocations of weights to the experts, such that (i) the decision makerʼs set of priors is precisely all the weighted-averages of priors, where an expertʼs prior is taken from her set and the weight vector is taken from Λ; (ii) the decision makerʼs valuation of an act is the minimal weighted valuation, over all weight vectors in Λ, of the expertsʼ valuations.

ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: Journal of Economic Theory - Volume 146, Issue 6, November 2011, Pages 2563–2582
نویسندگان
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