کد مقاله کد نشریه سال انتشار مقاله انگلیسی نسخه تمام متن
957361 928523 2007 36 صفحه PDF دانلود رایگان
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
Subjective probability over a subjective decision tree
موضوعات مرتبط
علوم انسانی و اجتماعی اقتصاد، اقتصادسنجی و امور مالی اقتصاد و اقتصادسنجی
پیش نمایش صفحه اول مقاله
Subjective probability over a subjective decision tree
چکیده انگلیسی

A state space has been assumed as a primitive for modeling uncertainty, which presumes that the analyst knows all the uncertainties a decision maker (DM) perceives. This is problematic because states are private information of the DM, and hence are not directly observable to the analyst. Dekel et al. [Representing preferences with a unique subjective state space, Econometrica 69 (2001) 891–934] derive, rather than assume, the subjective state space from preference over suitable choice objects.In a dynamic setting, a decision tree, that is, a pair consisting of a state space and a filtration, has been taken as a primitive. This assumption is also problematic—a decision tree should be derived rather than assumed as a primitive. We formulate a three-stage extension of the above literature in order to model a DM who anticipates subjective uncertainty to be resolved gradually over time. We identify also subjective beliefs on the subjective state space.

ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: Journal of Economic Theory - Volume 136, Issue 1, September 2007, Pages 536–571
نویسندگان
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