کد مقاله کد نشریه سال انتشار مقاله انگلیسی نسخه تمام متن
957407 928525 2007 30 صفحه PDF دانلود رایگان
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
Subjective probabilities on “small” domains
موضوعات مرتبط
علوم انسانی و اجتماعی اقتصاد، اقتصادسنجی و امور مالی اقتصاد و اقتصادسنجی
پیش نمایش صفحه اول مقاله
Subjective probabilities on “small” domains
چکیده انگلیسی
The Savagian choice-theoretic construction of subjective probability does not apply to preferences, like those in the Ellsberg Paradox, that reflect a distinction between risk and ambiguity. We formulate two representation results-one for expected utility, the other for probabilistic sophistication-that derive subjective probabilities but only on a “small” domain of risky events. Risky events can be either specified exogenously or in terms of choice behavior; in the latter case, both the values and the domain of probability are subjective. The analysis identifies a mathematical structure-called a mosaic-that is intuitive for both exogenous and behavioral specifications of risky events. This structure is weaker than an algebra or even a λ-system.
ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: Journal of Economic Theory - Volume 133, Issue 1, March 2007, Pages 236-265
نویسندگان
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