کد مقاله | کد نشریه | سال انتشار | مقاله انگلیسی | نسخه تمام متن |
---|---|---|---|---|
957407 | 928525 | 2007 | 30 صفحه PDF | دانلود رایگان |
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
Subjective probabilities on “small” domains
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کلمات کلیدی
موضوعات مرتبط
علوم انسانی و اجتماعی
اقتصاد، اقتصادسنجی و امور مالی
اقتصاد و اقتصادسنجی
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چکیده انگلیسی
The Savagian choice-theoretic construction of subjective probability does not apply to preferences, like those in the Ellsberg Paradox, that reflect a distinction between risk and ambiguity. We formulate two representation results-one for expected utility, the other for probabilistic sophistication-that derive subjective probabilities but only on a “small” domain of risky events. Risky events can be either specified exogenously or in terms of choice behavior; in the latter case, both the values and the domain of probability are subjective. The analysis identifies a mathematical structure-called a mosaic-that is intuitive for both exogenous and behavioral specifications of risky events. This structure is weaker than an algebra or even a λ-system.
ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: Journal of Economic Theory - Volume 133, Issue 1, March 2007, Pages 236-265
Journal: Journal of Economic Theory - Volume 133, Issue 1, March 2007, Pages 236-265
نویسندگان
Igor Kopylov,