Long-run changes in radiative forcing and surface temperature: The effect of human activity over the last five centuries

• Removing deterministic cycles and noise clarify statistical analyses of climate.
• The persistence of radiative forcing changes during the Industrial Revolution.
• The persistence of surface temperature changes about eighty years later.
• Radiative forcing and temperature cointegrate.
• The transient climate response is consistent with those reported by IPCC.

We test two hypotheses that are derived from the anthropogenic theory of climate change. The first postulates that a growing population and increasing economic activity increase anthropogenic emissions of radiatively active gases relative to natural sources and sinks, and this alters global biogeochemical cycles in a way that increases the persistence of radiative forcing and temperature. The second postulates that the increase in the persistence of radiative forcing transmits a stochastic trend to the time series for temperature. Results indicate that the persistence of radiative forcing and temperature changes from I(0) to I(1) during the last 500 years and that the I(1) fingerprint in radiative forcing can be detected in a statistically measureable fashion in surface temperature. As such, our results are consistent with the physical mechanisms that underlie the theory of anthropogenic climate change.