کد مقاله کد نشریه سال انتشار مقاله انگلیسی نسخه تمام متن
961063 929776 2012 30 صفحه PDF دانلود رایگان
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
Anatomy of a meltdown: The risk neutral density for the S&P 500 in the fall of 2008
موضوعات مرتبط
علوم انسانی و اجتماعی اقتصاد، اقتصادسنجی و امور مالی اقتصاد و اقتصادسنجی
پیش نمایش صفحه اول مقاله
Anatomy of a meltdown: The risk neutral density for the S&P 500 in the fall of 2008
چکیده انگلیسی
We examine the risk neutral probability density (RND) for the S&P 500 extracted from real-time bid and ask quotes for index options, under extreme market stress during the fall of 2008. The RND provides exceptional detail about investors' expectations as intraday volatility increased to a level five times higher than it had been two years earlier. Arbitrage keeps the mean of the RND closely tied to the market index, but its autocorrelation is very different. We also find a strong pattern in the RND's response to stock index movements: The middle portion amplifies the index change by more than 50% in some cases. This overshooting increased during the crisis and, surprisingly, was stronger in up moves than down moves.
ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: Journal of Financial Markets - Volume 15, Issue 2, May 2012, Pages 151-180
نویسندگان
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