Households' attitudes toward earthquake protection: An empirical analysis of the impact of fiscal support in Japan

Faced with an aging society and major earthquake risk in the near future, promoting the improvement of existing houses is one of the most important issues in Japan. In this paper, we formulate two types of demand models for home safety: a model for barrier-free conversion and a model for seismic retrofit based on a logit model. We explore statistically the factors that affect the demand for each improvement using prefectural data in Japan. We also analyze statistically the significance and impact of financial support programs for improving existing houses, which the Japanese government has implemented at the prefectural and municipal level. The results clarify the differences between the determinants of each type of improvement and show that the support program for barrier-free conversion has a positive and statistically significant effect on households' preference. However, neither the seismic test nor the seismic retrofit program conducted by prefectures has a positive impact on preference, whereas those by municipalities do affect preference.