Import protection, business cycles, and exchange rates: Evidence from the Great Recession

► The model estimates the impact of macroeconomic fluctuations on TTB import protection. ► The sample includes US, EU, Australia, Canada, and South Korea over 1988:Q1-2010:Q4. ► Increases in domestic unemployment and foreign GDP slowdowns lead to more import protection. ► Real bilateral exchange rate appreciations lead to more import protection. ► The model is used to estimate differences before and after the Great Recession.