کد مقاله کد نشریه سال انتشار مقاله انگلیسی نسخه تمام متن
965274 1479229 2014 15 صفحه PDF دانلود رایگان
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
One money, one cycle? The EMU experience
موضوعات مرتبط
علوم انسانی و اجتماعی اقتصاد، اقتصادسنجی و امور مالی اقتصاد و اقتصادسنجی
پیش نمایش صفحه اول مقاله
One money, one cycle? The EMU experience
چکیده انگلیسی
We examine whether the introduction of the euro had a significant impact on the synchronization of business cycles among members of Economic and Monetary Union (EMU). Empirical evidence on this relationship is rare so far and suffers from methodical weaknesses, such as the absence of time variability, which is crucial for addressing this issue. Using a synchronization index that is constructed on a year-by-year basis (1993-2011), we uncover a strong and robust empirical finding: the adoption of the euro has significantly increased the correlation of member countries' business cycles above and beyond the effect of higher trade integration. Thus, our results substantially strengthen the conclusion by Frankel and Rose (1998), i.e. a country is more likely to satisfy the criteria for entry into a currency union ex post rather than ex ante. Remarkably, however, this reasoning is even verified when controlling for the effect of increased trade linkages implied by entering a currency union.
ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: Journal of Macroeconomics - Volume 42, December 2014, Pages 141-155
نویسندگان
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