کد مقاله | کد نشریه | سال انتشار | مقاله انگلیسی | نسخه تمام متن |
---|---|---|---|---|
965743 | 1479225 | 2015 | 20 صفحه PDF | دانلود رایگان |
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
Euro area, oil and global shocks: An empirical model-based analysis
ترجمه فارسی عنوان
منطقه یورو، نفت و شوک جهانی: یک تحلیل مبتنی بر مدل تجربی
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کلمات کلیدی
موضوعات مرتبط
علوم انسانی و اجتماعی
اقتصاد، اقتصادسنجی و امور مالی
اقتصاد و اقتصادسنجی
چکیده انگلیسی
We assess the impact of oil shocks on euro-area (EA) macroeconomic variables by estimating with Bayesian methods a two-country New Keynesian model of EA and rest of the world (RW). Oil price is determined according to supply and demand conditions in the world oil market. We obtain the following results. First, a 10% increase in the international price of oil generates an increase of about 0.1 annualized percentage points in EA consumer price inflation. Second, the same increase in the oil price generates a decrease in EA gross domestic product (GDP) of around 0.1% and a trade deficit, if it is due to negative oil supply or positive oil-specific demand shocks. Third, it generates a mild EA GDP increase and a trade surplus if due to a positive RW aggregate demand shock. Fourth, the increase in the oil price over the 2004-2008 period did not induce stagflationary effects on the EA economy because it was associated with positive RW aggregate demand shocks. The drop in RW aggregate demand contributes to explain the 2008 fall in oil prices, EA GDP and inflation.
ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: Journal of Macroeconomics - Volume 46, December 2015, Pages 295-314
Journal: Journal of Macroeconomics - Volume 46, December 2015, Pages 295-314
نویسندگان
L. Forni, A. Gerali, A. Notarpietro, M. Pisani,